Rationale
(Changed due to Criteria revision)
The regional population of King Penguin Aptenodytes patagonicus satisfies the criterion for regionally Vulnerable under D2 (Population with a very restricted area of occupancy or number of locations (typically five or fewer) such that it is prone to the effects of human activities or stochastic events within a very short time period in an uncertain future, and is thus capable of becoming Critically Endangered or even Extinct in a very short time period). However, it was felt that it was unlikely that stochastic events or human activities at the Prince Edward Islands would lead to this species becoming Critically Endangered or even Extinct within one to two generations although there was a possibility that such activities could result in this species being listed as Vulnerable or Endangered during that period. As a result King Penguin was assessed as regionally Near Threatened.
Distribution
A. p. patagonicus breeds at Staten Island, the Falkland Islands and South Georgia in the south-west Atlantic Ocean and occurs off the coast of South America, including southern Argentina, during winter. A. p. halli breeds at the Prince Edward Islands (South Africa), Crozet Islands, Kerguelen Islands (France) and Heard Island (Australia) in the south Indian Ocean, and at Macquarie Island (Australia) south of New Zealand (del Hoyo et al. 1992). Stragglers have reached the coasts of Antarctica, Australia, New Zealand and South Africa (Marchant and Higgins 1990, del Hoyo et al. 1992).
The species was exterminated from the Falkland Islands by c. 1870 and from Heard Island by 1948, but both localities have subsequently been recolonised (del Hoyo et al. 1992). On South Africa's Marion and Prince Edward islands, the species breeds at 13 distinct colonies, which are dispersed across the islands (Crawford et al. 2003; Ryan et al. 2003). Stochastic events, unless exceptionally large, are unlikely to cause the species' extinction in the region in a very short time period.
Population
The global population has not been quantified (BirdLife International 2014). At Marion Island, King Penguins breed regularly at 10 discrete colonies (Crawford et al. 2003) although sporadic breeding events involving less than 100 pairs have been recorded at five other locations (Department of Environmental Affairs unpubl. information). At Marion Island, four estimates made between 2008/09 and 2011/12 of numbers breeding in summer (December-January), suggest a population of 69 405 ± 3 417 pairs (Crawford et al. 2009). At Prince Edward Island, birds breed at three colonies, where it was estimated that there were 2 228 ± 117 pairs in the 2008/09 summer season (Crawford et al. 2009c). Based upon this, c. 69 000 pairs breed annually at the Prince Edward Islands. However, since about 20% of King Penguins at Marion Island do not breed in each season (van Heezik et al. 1994), the overall population is adjusted to c. 90 000 pairs. Confidence in this estimate is high.
Population trend
The global population is increasing (BirdLife International, 2014). Based on aerial photographs taken in March, Siegfried et al. (1978), estimated numbers of King Penguins breeding annually at Marion Island to be c. 215 234 pairs. Correcting this to account for absenteeism of breeders (c. 20%), van Heezik et al. (1994) considered the overall population during 1974-1977 to be c. 270 000 pairs. Between 2008/09 and 2011/12, estimates of numbers breeding were made by counting incubating adults and chicks at smaller colonies and, at two large colonies (Kildalkey Bay and King Penguin Bay), counting incubators and chicks in a subsection of the colony (sometimes on photographs), gauging the proportion of the overall area of the colony covered by the subsection and extrapolating the count by the proportion (Crawford et al. 2009). In this period, estimates of numbers breeding averaged 69 000 pairs, equivalent to a population of c. 90 000 pairs. This suggests that the population decreased at Marion Island by 67% between 1976/77 and 2011/12 (35 years), but the months used and methods applied to estimate numbers were dissimilar. Counts of King Penguin chicks surviving to the end of winter (September or October) were made in a consistent manner in 21 years between 1987 and 2011. They averaged 51 900 ± 21 715 and there was no significant trend over time (Crawford et al. 2009). Therefore, unless there was a trend in the proportion of chicks surviving to the end of winter, the overall population at Marion Island was stable between the late 1980s and 2011. Confidence in this trend estimate is medium.
Threats
Antarctic Fur Seals Arctocephalus gazella predate King Penguins at Marion Island (Hofmeyr and Bester 1993); seal populations are increasing at both Marion and Prince Edward islands (Hofmeyr et al. 2006; Bester et al. 2009). Predation is particularly heavy at two colonies at Marion Island: Good Hope Bay and Kildalkey Bay. Giant petrels Macronectes spp. may take substantial numbers of eggs and chicks. By contrast, the impact of Lesser Sheathbills Chionis minor and Subantarctic Skuas Stercorarius antarcticus are probably relatively minor. An unknown disease killed 250-300 King Penguins at Good Hope Bay in late October 1992 (Cooper et al. 2009). Disturbance from helicopter flights may cause some breeding failure or lead pairs to relocate to alternative breeding sites. Insufficient food may decrease adult survival (Olsson and van der Jeugd 2002). Fisheries potentially compete with King Penguins for food at some localities (Moore et al. 1998).
Conservation
Underway
At Marion Island, no helicopter movement is permitted above King Penguin colonies (but helicopter flight paths do stray near to colonies). There are strict guidelines in place for offloading diesel. No access is allowed to Prince Edward Island except for bona fide research and conservation purposes every 4-5 years. The Prince Edward Islands are listed as a Ramsar Wetland of International Importance, as a Special Nature Reserve under the Environment Conservation Act (No 73 of 1989) and are managed under the Prince Edward Islands Management Plan 1996. The Prince Edward Islands Marine Protected Area was proclaimed in 2013.
Proposed
Best-practice guidelines for reducing risk of disease outbreaks at islands are being developed by the Agreement on the Conservation of Albatrosses and Petrels; once available, these guidelines should be implemented. Overwintering research teams should be given basic training in the rescue and rehabilitation of oiled penguins. The impact of any proposed fishery on the prey of King Penguins should be carefully assessed before such a fishery is allowed. Consideration should be given to declaring marine protected areas at important feeding grounds of King Penguins.
Research
* More information is required on the foraging distributions of breeding King Penguins from the Prince Edward Islands during summer and winter. Information is also required on the foraging distributions of immature birds and non-breeders.
* Estimates of breeding success, survival and age at breeding are required for King Penguins at the Prince Edward Islands.
* An assessment of mortality rates attributable to seals, giant petrels and skuas should be undertaken.
* It would be useful to undertake more counts of King Penguins at Prince Edward Island during January-April because breeders may arrive at colonies after December (du Plessis et al. 1994).
* The reasons for the apparent changes between earlier population estimates and the current population sizes should be investigated, as they may suggest ecosystem-level changes that have since stabilised at a new equilibrium for King Penguins.
