Rationale
(Changed due to Predicted change in population size)
The African Rock Pipit Anthus crenatus is endemic to South Africa and Lesotho, and has a naturally restricted global range and a relatively low overall population density due to its specific habitat requirements. A comparison of SABAP1 and SABAP2 data suggests that the African Rock Pipit has suffered a 34% decrease in its AoO, qualifying it as regionally Vulnerable under criterion A2c. However, given the incompleteness of SABAP2 coverage in Lesotho and other parts of the species' range as well as the fact that this cryptic and inconspicuous species is easily overlooked, the situation may be less dire than current information implies. Consequently, the African Rock Pipit is currently best classified as regionally Near Threatened.
Distribution
The African Rock Pipit is endemic to South Africa and Lesotho, and possibly western Swaziland. It is considered to be mostly resident and sedentary throughout its range (Clancey 1997). Except for isolated populations in Northern Cape Province, its range is virtually continuous and no subspecies are differentiated. Its distribution lies mainly south-east of a line connecting Cape Town in Western Cape Province and Barberton in Mpumalanga Province. Centres of abundance lie in south-western Free State, along the mountainous border of Northern Cape, Western Cape and Eastern Cape provinces, and in the interior highlands of Lesotho (Peacock 2006). The species occurs marginally in KwaZulu-Natal. At the western end of its range in Western Cape, the African Rock Pipit's distribution is fragmented and sparse. In addition, several small, isolated populations persist in suitable habitat islands elsewhere, including in the vicinity of Suikerbosrand and Nigel in south-eastern Gauteng, and in the vicinity of Hotazel, Olifantshoek and Groblershoop in Northern Cape.
Population
The regional (and global) population is unknown. The steep and inhospitable terrain inhabited by this species, as well as the bird's secrecy when not singing, make obtaining accurate population estimates difficult. Despite these difficulties, the total breeding population was estimated by Siegfried (1992) at 5 000-10 000 birds. Based on a comparison of SABAP1 and SABAP2 data the species appears to have undergone a range decrease of at least 11%. Assuming a concurrent population decrease, the total population may now be in the order of c. 3 300-8 900 mature individuals.
Population trend
A comparison of SABAP1 and SABAP2 data suggests that the African Rock Pipit's EoO and AoO have declined by 11% and 34% respectively. However, this may reflect incomplete sampling in the Lesotho Highlands and elsewhere. The confidence in this estimate is low and more accurate population density and distributional data are required.
Threats
The African Rock Pipit currently has an extensive range (at the time of writing, based on SABAP2 data: EoO 673 495 km2; AoO 116 156 km2). It was not considered a conservation priority in the past, largely because its habitat lies beyond the altitudinal and climatic limits of crop agriculture (Clancey 1997). However, climate change modelling has identified this endemic species as at risk, and predict that it is likely to suffer range contractions, range shifts, population decreases and local extinctions in the future. Preliminary analyses suggest that is may lose as much as 85% of its climatically suitable range by 2070-2100, and persists in only two of the 15 IBAs it occurs in today (Coetzee et al. 2009). Simmons et al. (2004) demonstrated that two factors that may be detrimental to the African Rock Pipit are its reliance on mountain-slope habitats, and its occurrence in the Succulent Karoo Biome (which, together with Fynbos, are expected to suffer the greatest area loss through climate change). Small, isolated populations are especially vulnerable, such as those in Northern Cape. The African Rock Pipit may be an ideal indicator of the effects of climate change, and requires monitoring in future. In addition, it may be locally displaced by commercial afforestation in the east of its range (Allan et al. 1997). Given its rocky habitat, the species is probably only marginally affected by grazing pressure and fire frequency.
Conservation
Underway
As this species was previously listed as Least Concern, no focused species-specific conservation actions are currently planned or underway. It does benefit from indirect protection in the form of IBAs and provincial and national reserves, and at least 10% of its population is estimated to occur in protected areas (Siegfried 1992). However, given the predicted range shift due to climate change, the future effectiveness of protected areas in conserving this species should be re-evaluated (Coetzee et al. 2009).
Proposed
No immediate conservation efforts are currently required, apart from continued monitoring and the estimation of more accurate demographic statistics. Long-term point sampling at a range of sites, and regular field surveys should be considered to assess the African Rock Pipit's susceptibility and response to the effects of climate change.
Research
* Accurate and up-to-date population size and population density estimates are required, particularly from the Lesotho Highlands and other areas surveyed in SABAP1 but not yet thoroughly covered in SABAP2.
* Further climatic modelling should be performed to identify at-risk populations and identify areas that may become critical from a conservation perspective in the future, for the preservation of this and other endemic montane species.
