Population trend
Trend
Using historical trajectories, an abundance model for global Sperm Whale populations was developed to estimate the population decline between 1700 and 1999 (Whitehead 2002). This model includes only the threat of legal commercial whaling and does not consider any other anthropogenic threats to this species, such as ship strikes, illegal whaling in the North Pacific and Antarctica, climate change, pollution, entanglement in fishing gear, or the persistent effects of social disruption and sexually skewed population structure. These factors may limit population recovery in many areas. This model postulates that Sperm Whale populations have shown a substantial recovery since commercial whaling of this species was largely prohibited, but may, in fact, be an overestimation of current Sperm Whale recovery trends. On the other hand, some factors (such as the use of a relatively low rate of population increase) suggest that this model may result in an underestimation of population abundance. However, despite these uncertainties, this model remains the most accurate means of estimating recent population trends. The estimated global pre- exploitation population of 1.1 million Sperm Whales is thought to have declined by 29% by 1880 due to âopen-boatâ whaling operations, and then by 67% of the original population (to around 361,000) by the 1990s as a direct result of modern whaling (Whitehead 2002). Their global population in 1999 (10 years after the end of commercial whaling) was estimated at 32% (95% CI: 19â62%) of its original abundance, thus at approximately 352,000 individuals. Following the trajectory (used in Whitehead 2002), the model was modified slightly to extend the endpoint to 2003 (Taylor et al. 2008). This produced a population estimate in 2003 of 44% of the 1921 population. Indeed, of 1,000 model runs, 6% gave populations in 2003 of < 30% of that in 1922, 54% gave a 2003 population between 30â50% of that in 1992, and 0% suggested depletion levels of less than 50% over this time (Taylor et al. 2008). Thus, the species remains Vulnerable under the A1 criterion.
Two major global Sperm whaling operations were driven by the high commercial value attached to this species: the primitive âopen-boatâ hunt from 1712â1920 (Best 1983), and the modern whaling expeditions from 1910â1988 (Tønnessen & Johnsen 1982). Modern whaling operations did not, however, impact all Sperm Whale populations. For example, populations in the western North Atlantic remain at reasonably high densities, and show evidence of successful reproduction (Gordon et al. 1998). After the decline of other large rorqual species and the invention of new uses for Sperm Whale oil, commercial whaling of this species was intensified until 1964, when an annual peak of 29,255 individuals were caught. Limits imposed by the IWC after 1968 coincided with the development of synthetic alternatives for Sperm Whale oil, resulting in a decline in Sperm whaling efforts. Commercial Sperm whaling is currently prohibited by the IWC. Under special permit, only one Sperm Whale was recorded as caught in the 2009/10 season by a Japanese whaling vessel in the North Pacific (IWC unpubl. data). Although, the effect on the Sperm Whale stocks by small-scale recent operations is negligible, the value of these activities is severely questioned.
There is some concern that a few populations are still in decline, and there is no clear quantitative evidence suggesting that the global population has shown a recovery since large-scale whaling ceased in 1980 (Taylor et al. 2008). However, there is also no evidence to the contrary. Future population assessments are required to address the doubt surrounding the recovery of this species. Within the assessment region, we assume that the population is at the depleted level suggested by the global assessment, although evidence from the circumpolar surveys indicates that the population is recovering (IWC unpubl. data). However, the historical depletion may have created a skewed sex ratio, which may make this species more vulnerable to minor threats (for example, plastic pollution, ship strikes, entanglements). As such, while the Antarctic population should have repopulated from less heavily exploited breeding populations at lower latitudes following the end of large-scale commercial whaling (Taylor et al. 2008), systematic surveys of Sperm Whales in the Antarctic showed no substantial or statistically significant increase between 1978 and 1992 (Branch & Butterworth 2001). As such, we infer the population trend to be stable but current surveys are required to assess current population trends. Corroborating the empirically estimated slow recovery rate, a recent population model revealed that Sperm Whale populations grow slowly and are potentially sensitive to survivorship rates of adult females, where a slight decline in survivorship could lead to a declining population (Chiquet et al. 2013).