Rationale
The Lion populations in South Africa declined substantially in the 19th century but have been stable or increasing over the past 20â30 years. The number of free-roaming mature Lions in South African large protected areas has increased from an estimated 800 in 2002â2004 to an estimated 1,286 in 2015. Furthermore, by including the entire area of transfrontier parks as interconnected and functional landscapes (over which South African conservation authorities have shared management jurisdiction), the total number of mature, free-roaming Lions within the assessment region is estimated to be 1,550. The number of small reserves containing Lions has increased from one in 1990 to at least 45 in 2013, which corresponds to an increase in Lion numbers from about 10 in 1990 to 500 (225 mature individuals) in 2013. Including Lions on small reserves yields a total mature population size of 1,775 individuals. Thus, Lion numbers in the assessment region comfortably exceed the threshold for D1 and the species does not qualify as threatened using the A or C criteria because the two major free roaming subpopulations have not declined over the past 20 years (3 generations). In Kruger National Park (KNP) alone, the number of Lionesses is estimated to have increased by 45% between 2005 and 2015. Thus we list the species as Least Concern.This species would technically qualify for Near Threatened D1 if we exclude the managed subpopulations in small reserves and assess only the South African portions of the transfrontier parks (1,286 mature individuals). However, because the overall population is stable or increasing with no severe threats that could cause rapid decline, and because the reintroduced subpopulations on small reserves qualify as wild and free roaming, a Least Concern listing is most appropriate. Similarly, the regional criterion could be applied as the two major Lion subpopulations are connected to conservation areas in Botswana, Zimbabwe and Mozambique through transfrontier conservation areas. Thus, there has been a genuine increase in Lion numbers due to the success of transfrontier conservation areas and private protected area expansion.
There are no major current threats to Lions in the assessment region. While the trade in Lion bones to EastâSoutheast Asia has been cited as a potential threat in South Africa, evidence suggests that the trade is not adversely impacting on wild Lion subpopulations in South Africa because the skeletons are almost all a by-product of the sizeable trophy hunting industry, and Lions that are hunted in South Africa are almost exclusively captive-bred (which are excluded from this assessment). However, this situation needs to be closely monitored (especially elsewhere in Africa where the scale of the bone trade is largely unknown) and the assessment re-evaluated if new data become available that indicates that the bone trade is a threat to wild Lions. Currently, key interventions include the formulation and adoption of a metapopulation plan (small, fenced subpopulations require greater management input and coordination) and protected area expansion (especially transfrontier conservation areas).
Regional population effects: Although the range is mostly fragmented within the assessment region, there is connectivity and dispersal between subpopulations within Kgalagadi Transfrontier Park and Great Limpopo Transfrontier Park. There is also dispersal across the Botswana and South African border at the Greater Mapungubwe Transfrontier