Oribi density depends on veld management and range quality (Skinner and Chimimba 2005, Stears 2015), and, at seven study sites at midland elevation in KwaZulu-Natal, density ranged from 4â18 animals / km2 (Everett et al. 1991). Similarly, outside of the assessment region, Oribi can be locally common in suitable habitats at densities of 2â10 animals / km², but have been recorded at densities up to 45 animals / km² in exceptionally productive tropical grasslands and treeless floodplains (Brashares and Arcese 2013 and references therein). However, densities estimated from ground counts range from 0.1â0.4 animals / km² in areas where the species is uncommon or depleted (East 1999).
The total minimum count for 2013â2015, based on both protected area game count records and survey returns from private landowners from across its range, is 3,098 individuals. This yields a minimum observed total of 1,859â2,169 mature individuals (assuming a 60â70% mature population structure). We assume this proportion of adults in the population as adult Oribi tend to be solitary, move in male-female breeding pairs, or in groups comprised of a single male and one or two females plus their offspring (Skinner and Chimimba 2005, Humphrey 2006). Moreover, as males tend to breed with one female (Skinner and Chimimba 2005) young most likely make up around one third (c. 33%) of the population.
Population estimates are confounded by inconsistent survey returns due to the difficulties of communicating with all landowners throughout the Oribiâs range. For example, from 2001 to 2005, survey results estimated the Oribi population in the region to be between 2,017 and 2,992 individuals (Oribi Working Group unpubl. data). In 2007, the population was estimated to have declined to 1,500 individuals (including young) (Oribi Working Group unpubl. data). However, this was likely due to poor survey returns (Patel 2015). In 2011, greater survey effort was made resulting in a population estimate of ~100 individuals (44 of which were juveniles). In 2012 and 2013, even greater focus was put into the survey, resulting in population estimates of 2,574 and 2,932 respectively (Oribi Working Group unpubl. data). Comparing similar response rates from 2001 (291 respondents) to 2012 (249 respondents), a decrease from 2,992 to 2,574 individuals was recorded. However, even if the current population estimate was under by 500 animals (which itself is an overestimation; A. Shrader and I. Little pers. comm. 2016) the total number of mature individuals would only be between 2,159 and 2,519.
Most of the of the population (63%) exists on private land and can be considered wild and free-roaming (Oribi Working Group unpubl. data). Intensive captive breeding have been unsuccessful due to spatial requirements associated with male territoriality. While most subpopulations are small (< 50 individuals), there are a few that are between 100 and 200 individuals. For example, both Chelmsford Nature Reserve and Maloti-Drakensberg Transfrontier Park have relatively large robust subpopulations 222 (in 2012, Ezemvelo KwaZulu-Natal Wildlife unpubl. data) and 416 individuals (in 2013; Krüger and van der Westhuizen 2014), respectively. However, the Maloti-Drakensberg Transfrontier Park subpopulation is more likely a combination of four separate subpopulations (Ezemvelo KZN Wildlife unpubli. data). However, numbers in the Maloti-Drakensberg have been declining for the past five years (from 496 to 375 individuals between 2010 and 2015; Ezemvelo KZN Wildlife unpubl. data). Furthermore, recent spatial data suggest that this subpopulation is more likely a combination of four separate subpopulations (pertaining to Kamberg, Highmoor, Giantâs Castle and Garden Castle) between which movement of individuals is unlikely (EzemveloâKZN Wildlife unpubl. data). Recent counts in Chelmsford Nature Reserve may also be a cause for concern, as the subpopulation declined to 96 in 2013, although this might be partially due to an Oribi capture operation that had taken place that year (removing 15 individuals to iSimangaliso Wetland Park) as noise and disturbance of the operation may have caused them to disperse onto neighbouring farms (P. Ngwenya pers. comm. 2016). Overall, then, no subpopulation is likely to harbour > 250 mature individuals.
While most subpopulations are suspected to be stable (N= 152), more are declining (N = 20) than increasing (N= 10) and 16 subpopulations have uncertain trends (Little and Magwaza 2014). However, these data are a rough indication rather than a robust sample because most of the landowners or managers did not feel confident enough to indicate their population trends (Oribi Working Group unpubl. data). Corroborating this, an independent study found that, between 1999 and 2013, of the 74% of subpopulations on private land in KwaZulu-Natal Province, 36% were increasing, 49% were decreasing and 15% are stable (similar declines on private land were noted in Marchant 2000). Of the remaining 26% of subpopulations in formally protected areas 42% were increasing, 38% were decreasing and 19% are stable (Patel 2015). Overall, 37% of all subpopulations were found to be increasing, 46% decreasing and 17% stable. For example, there was only one individual counted in Golden Gate Highlands National Park in 2010 (Ferreira et al. 2013). Outside protected areas, the population trend is gradually declining in many parts of the range as human densities increase and settlement expands, although its populations are stable in some thinly settled, unprotected regions where hunting pressures are relatively low (Patel 2015).
Generation length has been calculated to range between 3.5 and 6 years using the equation G = FR + z * RL (IUCN Standards and Petitions Subcommittee 2014). This estimate is wide due to the poor life history data available for the species. For example, we only have data on age of first reproduction (~10 months for females; Cade 1966, Adamczak 1999) and age of last reproduction (8â13 years; Mentis 1972). Reproductive period (RL) was determined by subtracting age at first reproduction (FR) from age of last reproduction, resulting in a range of breeding periods of 7â12 years. As we do not know the ratio between survivorship and fecundity, z is set at 0.5. As age of first reproduction (FR) is less than a year, we have inserted 0 into the formula. Using these values, the formula generates a range for the generation of between 3.5 years (G = 0 + 0.5 * 7) and 6 years (G = 0 + 0.5 * 12). The upper estimate of 6 years is similar to the 5.9 years calculated by Pacifici et al. (2013). Rounding up the lower estimate yields a generation length of 4â6 years, which translates to a three-generation window of 2002â2014 or 1996â2014. Analysing a sample of formally protected areas across the Oribiâs range (N = 14) that have adequate long-term data over the time period, reveals a population reduction of c. 13% (1996â2014) or a population increase of c. 6% (2002â2014).