Rationale
The charismatic and poorly known Temminckâs Ground Pangolin, while widely distributed across the savannah regions of the assessment region, are severely threatened by electrified fences (an estimated 377â1,028 individuals electrocuted / year), local and international bushmeat and traditional medicine trades (since 2010, the number of confiscations at ports / year has increased exponentially), road collisions (an estimated 280 killed / year) and incidental mortalities in gin traps. The extent of occurrence has been reduced by an estimated 9â48% over 30 years (1985 to 2015), due to presumed local extinction from the Free State, Eastern Cape and much of southern KwaZulu-Natal provinces. However, the central interior (Free State and north-eastern Eastern Cape Province) were certainly never core areas for this species and thus it is likely that the corresponding population decline was far lower overall than suggested by the loss of EOO. Additionally, rural settlements have expanded by 1â9% between 2000 and 2013, which we infer as increasing poaching pressure and electric fence construction.Estimated mature population size ranges widely depending on estimates of area of occupancy, from 7,002 to 32,135 animals. This is a long-lived species with low reproductive output that is increasingly affected by the loss of mature individuals. With the demise of the Asian pangolin populations, we suspect an increasingly severe level of poaching within southern Africa on a commercial scale, which thus represents an emerging threat to this species. Commercial harvesting pressure will synergise with the existing threats (such as high mortality rates from electric fences and local poaching for traditional medicine), as well as past habitat loss, so that a decline of 30% is likely over a 27-year period (three generations) between 2005 (c. when illegal trade began to escalate) and 2032. Thus we list as Vulnerable A4cd under a precautionary purview. Further quantification of the illegal trade is needed, as well as long-term monitoring to more accurately determine population size and trend, as this species may qualify for an Endangered listing. More accurate estimates of population size may also qualify the species as Vulnerable C1 under if the mature population size is shown to be under 10,000 mature individuals. Temminckâs Ground Pangolin should thus be reassessed as new data become available.
Additionally, as recent field surveys have extended the extent of occurrence significantly westwards the previous national Red List status should be revised accordingly as, due to the emerging threat of illicit international trade, this is a genuine and recent change since the previous assessment. Key interventions include electric fence modification to prevent electrocution, the removal of fences through conservancy formation, increased law enforcement and capacity building, and the development of more stringent legislation regarding illegal trade. Awareness campaigns for end-user markets should also be trialled. This species requires active and immediate conservation interventions.
Regional population effects: Dispersal probably occurs across borders in both directions, based on mitochondrial DNA analysis (du Toit 2014), but it is not suspected to be enough to sustain or increase the local population. The regional population more likely acts as a source population for many of the neighbouring countries, especially as the majority of neighbouring populations are more greatly affected by both local and international trade due to more relaxed wildlife laws and generally lower levels of law enforcement. With the dramatic decline in the Asian pangolin populations and increased difficulties in securing pangolins in the Asian range states, trade will increasingly shift to Africa (as was observed in the increased illegal rhinoceros horn trade and suggested by present pangolin trade data). Thus, although other southern African countries are bearing the brunt of this increased trade at present, it is believed that this illicit trade will increasingly affect the South African population as well. Based on the levels of exploitation and rate of population decline observed for the Asian pangolin species, which occur at similar densities to Temminckâs Ground Pangolin, it is projected that this increased trade may rapidly lead to population reduction in the region