Rationale
The Spotted-necked Otter is widespread within the assessment region, and may either be expanding westwards along the Orange River, or subpopulations here may have been overlooked. However, it is restricted to areas of permanent fresh water offering good shoreline cover and an abundant prey base. Overall, the population may be declining as river habitat is lost to development and infestations of alien species in riparian areas, and riverside vegetation degradation from overgrazing. Habitat loss and degradation is exacerbated by human disturbance, including both direct and indirect persecution and/or hunting, reduction of denning sites and diminishment of the speciesâ prey base which may be attributed to decreasing river quality from agricultural and industrial run-off.This species is estimated to occur along an expanse of rivers totalling roughly 31,407 km. Using density estimates of 0.09â1 individual / km yields 2,855â31,407 individuals. However, 49.7% of the rivers within the extent of occurrence are modified, and thus we feel using a low-density estimate of 0.09 otter / km is more appropriate for the disturbed rivers. This yields an estimated 1,413 individuals for the disturbed rivers (15,704 km), and 15,704 individuals for the intact rivers, which yields an estimated total of 17,117 individuals, of which 9,414â10,954 are mature (assuming a 55â64% mature population structure). Groupings of interconnected rivers were chosen in each catchment area as individual subpopulations, which yielded 103 subpopulations. These river systems ranged from 10â968 km, meaning no subpopulation is estimated to exceed 1,000 mature individuals (using the upper density estimate of 1 otter / km).
Thus, considering the estimated mature population is likely to be at or just below 10,000 mature individuals, no subpopulation is estimated to contain more than 1,000 mature individuals, and there is an inferred continuing decline in both habitat and mature individuals, we list this species as Vulnerable C2a(i). We construe this as a genuine change based on a recent study that estimated a c. 42% decline over three generations at one locality. While we choose not to extrapolate this across the region, it is potentially indicative of more widespread continuing declines. We emphasise that far greater monitoring and survey studies (especially along the Orange River) are needed to make this assessment more accurate, particularly long-term monitoring of subpopulation trends, and that the availability of new information should prompt a re-assessment of this species, as it may be both more or less threatened than can currently be determined. River restoration and riverside rehabilitation are key interventions necessary for the prevention of future declines in population numbers.
Regional population effects: While we suspect that dispersal between Mozambique, South Africa and Swaziland is possible, it is unlikely to provide significant rescue effects seeing as the southern Mozambique population is disjunct from the rest of the African range (Reed-Smith et al. 2015). The species does not traverse large distances (Kruuk 2006), though further research on the dispersal capacities and rates of this species is needed.