Rationale
The total wild population within the assessment region is estimated at approximately 26,896 individuals of which 22,222 and 4,674 occur on state and private land respectively. Kruger National Park (KNP) (17,086 animals) and the agglomeration of private reserves adjoining KNP (3,930 animals) in South Africa contains the largest African Elephant subpopulation in the assessment region with an estimated 21,016 animals, of which 7,986 are inferred to be mature. Since 2006, elephant numbers have increased by approximately 41% within the assessment region. Furthermore, considerable effort has gone into translocating elephants to new properties over the past 30 years, thus expanding the current range (both extent of occurrence and area of occupancy). There are currently no major threats facing the wild elephant population in the assessment region. However, illegal ivory poaching, which is currently low to negligible, is anticipated to become a threat in the future. The Red List status of the African Elephant within the assessment region is thus maintained at Least Concern as elephant subpopulations regionally as well as locally are either stable or increasing and the minimum number of mature individuals is > 8,000. However, as a precaution, and due to the concern of increased ivory poaching within southern Africa, it is recommended that annual reviews of the African Elephantâs conservation status within the assessment region be done to keep track of trends relating to sharp increases in illegal killings both outside and within the region. Additionally, as existing elephant habitat is severely fragmented (see below) and the long-term resilience of the population depends on managing translocations between protected areas and developing migratory corridors across transfrontier conservation spaces, this species remains conservation dependent.Regional population effects: Within the assessment region, the majority of the properties holding elephant are fully fenced and thus do not allow for range expansion or dispersal. There are currently no migratory populations in South Africa though two of the largest subpopulations, namely the Greater Limpopo Transfrontier Conservation Area (GLTFCA) â which includes KNP â and the Greater Mapungubwe Transfrontier Conservation Area (GMTFCA) â which includes Mapungubwe National Park â do undertake cross-border movements. The GLTFCA subpopulation moves between KNP, the adjoining private reserves to the west, Mozambique to the east and Gonarezhou to the north of KNP in Zimbabwe. The Tuli elephants (GMTFCA) move between Botswana, Mapungubwe National Park in South Africa and southern sections of Zimbabwe. Studies on the cross-border movement patterns have, however, not been running long enough to establish whether dispersal or range expansion is taking place. Tracking records from Elephants Alive show definite movement between Pafuri in the KNP and Gonarezhou in Zimbabwe as well as between KNP and Mozambique within the GLTFCA (Cook et al. 2015). Although it may still be too early to categorise any particular subset of the population as a source or sink population, it appears as if Limpopo National Park in Mozambique is being re-colonised from the Kruger population.