The overall Hippo population in Africa is estimated at approximately 80,000 individuals (Lewison & Oliver 2008), and, across the southern African region, populations are generally considered stable but are declining in other parts of Africa (Lewison & Oliver 2008). Hippo populations are naturally regulated by rainfall, due to the fact that they spend much of the day in or near water (Field 1970). Within the assessment region, there are two major subpopulations, occurring in the Lowveld of northeastern South Africa and that of northern KwaZulu-Natal (KZN). Most groups are fragmented by fences or other barriers to movement across the water-savanna ecotone. Water quality and quantity has declined, which has possibly led to fragmentation too. Overall, the minimum current (2013â2015 counts) population size is observed (based on game censuses using aerial surveys) to be 11,061 individuals, which equates to c. 6,637â7,743 mature individuals (assuming a 60â70% mature population structure). Most subpopulations around the country have increased over the last decade (SANBI 2011).
The total Hippo count in Kruger National Park (KNP) in 1986 was estimated at 2,510 individuals across the five major rivers (Joubert 2007). In 2008, an aerial census put the population size at 3,100 individuals (Ferreira et al. 2013). The most recent census (2015), based on helicopter counts along rivers and dams, is 7,270 individuals (S. Ferreira pers. comm. 2016), but drought conditions will have reduced the population more recently. Although estimating a population trend for Hippos is difficult due to a large degree of uncertainty associated with Hippo census data and the substantial annual fluctuations in population due to rainfall, this is thought to be a genuine increase over c. three generations (1985â2015) in KNP (M. Hofmeyr pers. comm. 2016). The recent drought in 2016 has led to low levels of natural mortality from reduction in grazing areas, but these mortalities are considered insignificant compared to the overall population increase (M. Hofmeyr pers. comm. 2016). Recent research indicates the Hippos of KNP are a single genetically isolated management unit (Beckwitt et al. 2016).
In Mpumalanga, the current Hippo subpopulation is estimated at ~ 1,000 animals, where 574 animals occur in provincial and private nature reserves, whilst an estimated 429 Hippo occur in the provincial river systems. In Mpumalanga, the numbers of Hippo increased from 562 animals in 2003 to 1,003 animals in 2013, an increase of 78%. These totals are based on game censuses on provincial nature reserves, and private nature reserves on the western boundary of KNP, and regular Hippo counts along the Lowveld rivers. Most of the Hippo subpopulations in the protected areas and rivers close to the KNP show strong positive growth trends, in spite of significant Hippo removals through damage-causing animal (DCA) complaints and pro-active Hippo capture operations.
In Limpopo, the Hippo numbers are currently estimated at ~ 650 animals. The rivers on the western boundary of KNP were surveyed in 2012. However, other river systems in the province were last surveyed in 2003. The Hippo subpopulations in the Olifants and Letaba Rivers have increased by about 20â30% between 2003 and 2013 (542â651 individuals. Due to lack of survey effort it is not possible to make statements about population trends in the other river systems. Similarly, in Mpumalanga, between 2004 and 2014 a total of 300 Hippo were removed from the provincial population through DCA procedures and hunting.
Hippo in KZN are mainly confined to the large rivers, coastal lakes and estuaries of northeastern Zululand and Maputaland regions of the province. R. H. Taylor (Ezemvelo KZN Wildlife) gives a total for 1986 of 1,264 for KZN, with the largest concentration (595) on Lake St Lucia, but he suggests a better estimate of 1,423 averaged over the five years 1982â1986. Recent population estimates for KZN (Goodman & Craigie 2014) yielded figures of 1,893 in 2012 and 1,797 in 2013. These occurred in 10 formally protected areas and on 22 private and communal protected areas. Currently the largest single populations are found in the St Lucia Game Reserve component of the iSimangaliso Wetland Park (1,004 individuals) and Ndumo Game Reserve (189 individuals). The trend in the provincial population between 2004 and 2011 showed a fairly consistent increase of 4% per annum (Goodman & Craigie 2014) but has stabilised and even possibly declined between 2011 to 2013. The numerical status of the KZN Hippo population at the end of 2013, comprises of 10 subpopulations in protected areas (1,545 individuals) and 22 subpopulations on private and communal land (252 individuals) in northeast Zululand. In protected areas the population has grown slowly (1% pa) over the past eight years, but appears to have declined in the past two years. On private land the population is small (252), but has increased gradually from 67 (2004) to 252 (2013), signifying a growth rate of 13% per annum. It is important to reiterate that, due to the uncertainty attached to Hippo census data, these population trends should be viewed cautiously.
In the North West Province, there are 57 individuals on formally protected areas and an additional 54 on private lands (Power 2014). In the Eastern Cape Province, the population is estimated to be c. 90 in at least four protected areas. However, this may be an underestimate as not all data from protected areas are available.
In Swaziland the population is currently estimated at about 120 animals. The Hippo distribution expanded between 2004 and 2014, and some DCA Hippo control is done to limit conflict between Hippo and humans.
The generation length for this species is calculated as 10 years (Pacifici et al. 2013), which yields a 30-year three-generation period. Collation of accurate long-term data are needed to estimate population trends on a national scale. No systematic monitoring data over this time period are currently available.