Rationale
African Marsh Rats are dependent on intact rivers and wetland ecosystems, as they have not been found in artificial or degraded wetlands, and are thus patchily distributed within the assessment region. Furthermore, they are rare relative to Otomys spp., occurring at low densities with low reproductive rates within fragmented subpopulations. Although previously assessed as one species (D. incomtus), new data reveal three species within the assessment region: D. capensis endemic to the Cape region, D. incomtus probably endemic to the eastern areas of the assessment region, and D. robertsii occurring throughout northern South Africa and Zimbabwe. The extent of occurrence for both D. incomtus and D. robertsii is estimated to be far greater than 10,000 km2 while that of D. capensis is inferred to be 17,880 km2. The area of occupancy, calculated by summing the amount of remaining natural vegetation around wetlands within each speciesâ range, is estimated to be between 615â4,262 km2 for D. capensis, 2,382â13,823 km2 for D. incomtus, and 1,030â11,382 km2 for D. robertsii. These values, however, do not account for degraded habitats and include potentially unoccupied patches (resulting from the poor dispersal ability of the species). Thus, we take a precautionary purview to this assessment by using the lower bound of the occupancy values.Wetlands are continuing to be lost with agricultural and human settlement expansion, which in turn increases wetland degradation from overgrazing, water abstraction, pollution and invasive alien plant sprawl. For example, between 2005 and 2011 in KwaZulu-Natal Province, 7.6% (7,217 km2) of natural habitat was lost (1.3% per annum), which equates to a 13% loss of habitat over ten years (projecting to 2015). Given the restricted range, habitat fragmentation and ongoing loss of suitable wetland habitat we list D. capensis as Vulnerable B1,2ab(ii,iii,iv), D. incomtus as Near Threatened B2ab(ii,iii,iv), and D. robertsii as Vulnerable B2ab(ii,iii,iv). We note that D. incomtus would qualify for Vulnerable C2a(i) if density estimates suggested a population size of < 10,000 mature individuals. We consider these genuine changes, as 32.8% of wetlands nationally have been lost between 1990 and 2013/14 (although this includes many wetlands that are simply temporarily dry due to the wetter conditions in 1990). This species should be reassessed once density estimates in suitable habitat are available. Key interventions for these species include conserving and restoring strips of natural vegetation around wetlands and riverside, and extending protected wetland habitat area and connectivity through biodiversity stewardship schemes.
Regional population effects: Not applicable for D. capensis. Although we assume that D. incomtus is endemic to the eastern region of the assessment region, future molecular work is needed to affirm this. For D. robertsii, dispersal may be possible through corridors or riverine vegetation within the Greater Limpopo Transfrontier Park and Mapungubwe Transfrontier Conservation Area. However, wetland habitats are fragmented and this species is a poor disperser and thus it is unknown whether significant rescue effects are possible.