Population trend
Trend
The total global population is between 27,000 and 47,000 individuals (Bohm & Höner 2015). Most subpopulations in protected areas in southern Africa are considered to be stable, whereas many populations in eastern and western Africa, even in protected areas, are considered to be declining, mostly due to incidental snaring and poisoning (Hofer et al. 1996; Hofer & Mills 1998a). The encounter rate of these carnivores in some areas is extremely low due to dense vegetation and their nocturnal behaviour, which can make estimating population size difficult.
Within the assessment region, we estimate a current (2008â2015 counts) population size of 7,687â8,369 individuals in ten protected areas (Table 2). Frank (1986a) calculated the mean composition of clans as 16.7 adult males, 22 adult females, 13.7 subadults and 18 cubs. This yields a total estimated mature population size of 4,228â4,603 individuals using a 55% mature population structure. However, this may be an underestimate of mature individuals as two clans in Kruger National Park (KNP) have an average of 89% (range: 69â100%) and 73% (range: 63â100%) individuals > 14 months (assuming a c. 12 month age of maturity) during 31 and 15 months of monitoring (L. Belton pers. comm. 2016). Using 89% as the mature population structure yields a mature population of 6,841â7532 individuals. Additionally, the mature population size is an underestimate as 1) data were not available for some protected areas (either statutory or private) containing Spotted Hyaena subpopulations; and 2) most estimates were call-up rather than capture-recapture surveys. Estimating subpopulation size through captureârecapture methods (using camera traps) may be a more effective survey method in smaller areas than call-ups. For example, the subpopulation in Phinda Private Game Reserve, where the known subpopulation is 27 adult hyaenas, was estimated as 24 ± 5.6 individuals using capture-recapture compared to 19 ± 5 individuals using call-up surveys (C. Hootan unpubl. data; 2012 count). The corollary of this finding is that call-up surveys may thus underestimate subpopulation size and the total population of Spotted Hyaenas may be larger than currently estimated. However, Ferreira and Funston (2016) show that a calibrated call-up survey increases the precision of estimates and adjusts to non-response similarly to distance sampling. The previous assessment estimated a population size of 3,138 (Friedmann & Daly 2004), which yields a mature population size of at least 1,569 (using a 50% mature population structure). Thus, we infer the national population to have been stable at above 1,500 mature individuals over the past decade. However, the KwaZulu-Natal subpopulations are showing localised declines (see below).
The two major subpopulations of Spotted Hyaena within the assessment region exist in KNP and Kgalagadi Transfrontier Park (KTP). Using call-up surveys, Mills et al. (2001) estimated Spotted Hyaena abundance in KNP as 2,668 individuals (surveys conducted between 1984 and 1989). Similarly, using call-up surveys, Ferreira et al. (2010, 2013) estimated the subpopulation to range from 2,000 to 5,340 individuals with a most likely size of 3,667 (3,443â3,891) individuals in 2008 (Ferreira & Funston 2016). This was a slight increase from the 2005/2006 count of 3,348 (3,131â3,566) individuals (Ferreira & Funston 2016). Friedmann and Daly (2004) stated the KNP subpopulation as being 2,500 individuals while Bohm and Höner (2015) quote it as ranging between 1,300 and 3,900 individuals. The most recent and accurate estimate is 7,339 (6,998â7,680) individuals (S. Ferreira unpubl. data) in 2015. This is thought to be a genuine increase (along with an increase in Lion Panthera leo numbers) between 2005 and 2015 as the same methodology was used, and is correlated with an increase in prey biomass (Ferreira & Funston 2016; S. Ferreira pers. comm. 2016). The KNP subpopulation does not appear to be threatened but could decline through the outbreak of diseases and/or climatic changes (Ferreira & Funston 2016). The subpopulation on the South African side of KTP is inferred to have remained stable at c. 80 adults since 1984 (Mill 1990), while an estimate for all of KTP is c. 375 individuals (2009 count; Ferreira et al. 2013). Kruger National Park holds the majority of mature individuals within the assessment region, ranging from 91% to 95% of the total population (using the KNP subpopulation range and including all of the KTP subpopulation or the South African side only).
In KwaZulu-Natal Province, the subpopulations appear to be exhibiting mixed trends. In HiP, while a call-up survey in 2003 and 2004 revealed a subpopulation size of 327 and 331 individuals respectively (J. Graf unpubl. data), repeat surveys (using the same methods) in 2010, 2013 and 2015 estimated 301, 126 and 108 individuals respectively (D. Druce unpubl. data), which indicates a 68% decline over 12 years. The decline could be real or spurious (hyaenas not responding to the call-ups), but is suspected to be genuine (D. Druce pers. comm. 2016). Population declines were also seen in Mkhuze Game Reserve with density estimates from capture-recapture data decreasing from 12.1 individuals per 100 km2 in 2008 to 7.2 individuals per 100 km2 in 2015 (A. Hunnicutt unpubl. data), which represents a 40% decline over seven years. Conversely, the subpopulation at Phinda Private Game Reserve has been shown to be increasing between 2007 and 2014 (using capture-recapture surveys) as subpopulation estimates for 2007, 2009, 2011, 2012 and 2014 are 11, 18, 30, 24 and 46 respectively, although this may be due to dispersal into the reserve from other areas (A. Hunnicutt unpubl. data). In Ndumo Game Reserve, seven individuals have been positively identified, of which three were cubs (L. Lerm unpubl. data; 2010 survey). There are currently thought to be no Spotted Hyaenas on Tswalu Kalahari Private Game Reserve (C. Kraft pers. comm. 2016), but plans are in motion to reintroduce animals in the future (D. MacFadyen pers. comm. 2016). There is a subpopulation on Venetia Limpopo Nature Reserve, but numbers are uncertain (D. MacFadyen pers. comm. 2016). Subpopulation trends should be estimated over three generations, where generation length has been calculated as 13.8 years (Pacifici et al. 2013), which yields a 41.5 year three generation period; or 5.7 years (Bohm & Höner 2015), which yields a 17-year three-generation period. We accept the latter estimate.
Groups outside protected areas in the Limpopo and North West provinces are probably stable too with the potential to be naturally re-colonised by emmigrants from protected areas or immigration from Botswana. For example, Power (2014) noted the existence of a free-roaming group on the periphery of a reserve in the Dwarsberg hills, which are either escapees from Madikwe Game Reserve or immigrants from Botswana. Recently, free-roaming individuals have been sighted in the Waterberg, Limpopo, the first time in 20 years since a Spotted Hyaena was seen in the area (F. Dalerum & C. Jordaan pers. comm. 2015).