Population trend
Trend
The Caracal is common in South Africa and southern Namibia where removed individuals seem to be quickly replaced by other individuals. No published data exist, however, to say that the species is common outside of parts of southern Africa; in fact, in comparison with the situation in the assessment region, Caracals are considered rare throughout most of their range (Avgan et al. 2016).
Early scientifically-gathered information on density estimates is virtually non-existent and makes comparison with newly gathered information, using relatively modern techniques, difficult. For the first time, benchmark information useful for future comparison has only recently been gathered, in South Africaâs northern provinces (Thorn et al. 2011; Power 2014). This information suggests that, at least in the North West Province, the speciesâ AOO has regionally increased (when compared to the information put forward in Rautenbach 1978), though, owing to differences in methodology (i.e. camera traps in later years), the significance of this is called into question. Notwithstanding, it is fact that records of this species were only forthcoming from this part of the Highveld grasslands well after the late 1990s (Transvaal Provincial Administration Records; Newbery 1995). Elsewhere, hearsay information and the proliferation of records do also support an eastward range expansion in KwaZulu-Natal. This was first observed by Rowe-Rowe (1992) when he compared his data with the earlier records of Pringle (1977) and Rowe-Rowe (1978); today, further expansion can be noticed when recent MammalMap records are compared with those indicated in Rowe-Rowe (1992).
Caracal densities (as inferred from home range size) can vary markedly between habitats, depending on environmental variables such as the size, type, density and composition of prey available, habitat characteristics, and the degree of persecution by humans (Avenant 1993). For example, home ranges of males in Postberg Nature Reserve (PNR; part of the West Coast National Park) (Avenant & Nel 1998) were larger than those of males in the Mountain Zebra National Park (MZNP) (Moolman 1986), but smaller than those of males on farms around the MZNP (Moolman 1986). In turn, the home ranges in all three of these study areas were markedly smaller than that of a single male tracked in the mountains in the Western Cape (Norton & Lawson 1985). Similar differences were observed in female home ranges, with home ranges in a farming area, southwest Western Cape (Stuart 1982), significantly larger than at both MZNP (Moolman 1986) and PNR (Avenant & Nel 1998). The smaller home range size of females in the PNR could reflect the high density of rodent prey, the most common item in Caracal scats and the only prey group whose density and biomass significantly correlated with its percentage volume in Caracal scats at PNR (Avenant & Nel 1998). Fitting into the normal felid pattern, male home ranges are larger than those of females, and typically overlap with a number of female home ranges (Moolman 1986; Avenant 1993; Stuart & Stuart 2013). While sexual dimorphism, and the fact that the larger males may prefer larger prey species, which are less densely spaced than the smaller prey species, are still debated as a possible reason for this observation, Avenant (1993) found, within each of the four study areas mentioned above (Stuart 1982; Norton & Lawson 1985; Moolman 1986; Avenant 1993), strong positive correlations between home range size and standardised metabolic needs (SMN, where SMN = body weight0.75).
Avenant and Nel (1998) estimated a density of 0.23â0.47 Caracal / km² in PNR, while Moolman (1986) estimated a density of 0.38 Caracal / km² for MZNP. A density of 0.3 Caracal / km² is thus a reasonable estimate for a high-density population, should blanket extrapolations be required. Large differences may, however, occur on farmland where Caracals are actively hunted, and territoriality and social structure may differ from that in protected populations (du Plessis et al. 2015). Furthermore, in areas where Caracals and Black-backed Jackals (Canis mesomelas) co-occur, Caracal densities may be markedly lower in some habitats where they are excluded by Black-backed Jackals and vice versa (Ferreira 1988). Current information shows that, in such areas, Caracal seems to be the dominant species in more rocky and mountainous terrain and Black-backed jackal more dominant on open plains areas; this situation may, however, be impacted by the type and combination of prey items, as well as the persecution history of the area (see du Plessis 2013). Compensatory breeding is a factor that may explain the Caracalâs resilience to persecution (Avenant & du Plessis 2008; du Plessis 2013), but this has not been confirmed for this species.
Considering the possibility of such varying density estimates, a robust population estimate would be difficult to attain based on the current lack of data. However, given their wide distribution in South Africa, that Caracals seems to prefer rocky or mountainous terrain (such as at PNR and MZNP), but are very adaptable and can occur in many different vegetation types (e.g. they also occur in the Kalahari), the total Caracal population in the assessment region could be anywhere between 45,000 and 150,000 individuals, depending on local densities (0.15â0.5 individual / km2) and occupancy.