Rationale (Changed due to Same category and criteria)
Although this charismatic species has a wide range across the assessment region, and occurs across a variety of habitats, including rural and peri-urban gardens, there is a suspected continuing decline in the population. From 1980 to 2014, there has been an estimated 5% loss in extent of occurrence and 11â16% loss in area of occupancy (based on quarter degree grid cells) due to agricultural, industrial and urban expansion. This equates to a c. 3.6â5.3% loss in occupancy over three generations (c. 11 years). Since the 1900s, there is estimated to have been a total loss in occupancy of 40.4%. Similarly, a recent study using species distribution modelling has projected a further decline in occupancy by 2050 due to climate change. Corroborating these data, many anecdotal reports from landowners across the country suggest a decline of some sort over the past 10â20 years due to predation by domestic pets, fire frequency, pesticide usage, electrocution on game fences, and ongoing illegal harvesting for the pet trade and traditional medicine trade. For example, there has been an 8% decrease in reported questionnaire-based sightings frequency in a section of the North West Province since the 1980s. Simultaneously, from 2000 to 2013, there has been a rural and urban settlement expansion of 1â39% and 6â15% respectively in all provinces where the species occurs. While it is not urban and rural expansion per se that threatens this species (but rather the associated threats of domestic animals, harvesting and restricted movement), and thus the rate of settlement expansion is not necessarily linear with population decline, we suspect it to be qualitatively indicative of increasing threat levels and thus a declining population.Research is urgently needed to quantify local rates of decline over a three-generation period, which will require systematic monitoring. This species should be reassessed as such data become available, as it may qualify for uplisting to a more threatened category. Currently, we retain the listing of Near Threatened but change the criteria to A4cde to reflect a suspected population reduction ranging from 1% to 39% over the past three generations and an inferred continuing decline due to intensifying threats. Key interventions include creating conservancies and indigenous gardens, enforcement of legislation that regulates illegal harvesting and trading, and the continued collection of distribution records by both conservationists and the public.
Regional population effects: This species' distribution is discontinuous, with the Namibia and Angola populations not connecting with the South Africa, Botswana and Zimbabwe populations (Skinner & Chimimba 2005). Movement between these two populations is expected to be limited or completely restricted due to the large geographic distance separating them, and low vagility of the species. Dispersal of individuals from Botswana and Zimbabwe into South Africa is likely, as well as emigration of South African hedgehogs into these neighbouring countries. However dispersal rates have not been documented for the species and further studies are required to determine whether the movements are increasing or decreasing. Thus, the Near Threatened listing is retained