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Least Concern (LC)
Assessors: Greg Hofmeyr Mia Wege Nico de Bruyn Marthan Bester
Contributors: Steven Kirkman Herman Oosthuizen Mike Meyer Mdu Seakamela Lloyd Lowry Samantha Page-Nicholson Matthew Child
Reviewers: Greg Hofmeyr Nico de Bruyn Mia Wege Marthan Bester

Rationale

The total population of A. tropicalis within the Prince Edward Islands is estimated at 108,000 individuals, although the most recent population assessment has reported an inflexion from positive (up to 2007) to a current negative population trend. Pup production in the assessment area was estimated at 14,130 at Prince Edward Island in 2008/2009 (Bester et al. 2009) and 8,312 (CI: 7,983–8,697) at Marion Island in the 2012/2013 summer. This represents a mean annual decline at both sites: 0.3% since 2001/2002 at Prince Edward Island and 6.4% between 2003/2004 and 2012/2013 at Marion Island. Population decline at Marion Island was highest at high-density rookeries despite negligible changes in female attendance patterns, pup mortality or the median pupping date over the last 25 years. It is currently unclear why this population is declining and further research is ongoing to assess the cause and to determine whether it will continue. However, the subpopulation on Marion Island, while having declined by 46% between 2004 and 2013, has remained stable over the past three generations (1989: 8,684 pups; 2015: 8,312 pups). Thus, although a net population decline was observed recently, which necessitates continued monitoring, the population remains well above 10,000 mature individuals within the assessment region and thus the Least Concern listing remains. The species should be reassessed if the declining population trend continues.

Although there are no major threats facing this species at present, climate change may become a concern if prey species dwindle or re-distribute. Furthermore, commercial exploitation of fish in their feeding range has the potential to influence the environment of these seals even though it does not target their predominant prey species. Subantarctic Fur Seals experienced a population bottleneck during the 19th and early 20th centuries that presumably reduced their genetic variation and which may render this species vulnerable to disease or climate change. Protection is provided for this species at the Prince Edward Islands under the Sea Birds and Seals Protection Act (Act No. 46 of 1973). Furthermore the Prince Edward Islands were proclaimed a Special Nature Reserve in 1995 under the South African Environmental Conservation Act (No. 73 of 1989) and a Marine Protected Area in 2013.

Regional population effects: Subantarctic Fur Seals have a continuous global range in the Southern Ocean (Wynen et al. 2000, Figure 1) and there is potential for immigrants from other subpopulations in the sub-Antarctic region to augment or re-colonise the local Prince Edward Island subpopulation in case of decline or extinction. While there is currently no direct evidence of immigration to the Prince Edward Islands, this is most probably due to limited research effort in terms of marking individuals. Hence, the Least Concern listing is supported.

Distribution

Subantarctic Fur Seals are widely-distributed in the southern hemisphere. They breed on sub-Antarctic islands north of the Antarctic Polar Front (SCAR 2008), including both islands in the Prince Edward Islands Archipelago (Bester et al. 2003; Wege et al. 2016). At sea they are wide-ranging (de Bruyn et al. 2009), and vagrants have been recorded widely, including on the South African coast (Shaughnessy & Ross 1980; Bester 1989), on the East African coast as far north as Tanzania (Hofmeyr & Amir 2010) and on the West African coast as far north as Gabon (Zanre & Bester 2011).

Population trend

Trend

Globally, the total population was estimated to be greater than 400,000 animals in the early 2000s and all indications are that it has been steadily growing since that time (SCAR 2008). Subantarctic Fur Seals breed at numerous sites on eight islands or island groups. Some 99% of Subantarctic Fur Seals breed at three of these sites (Gough Island, Prince Edward Islands and Amsterdam Island). About 63% of global pup production takes place at Gough Island (Bester et al. 2006) and a further 11% at Amsterdam Island (Guinet et al. 1994). The Prince Edward Islands are responsible for some 25% of global pup production (SCAR 2008; Bester et al. 2009; Wege et al. 2016). While all other populations are considered to be either stable or increasing (SCAR 2008), new assessments are required.

Within the assessment region, there were approximately 14,130 pups born at Prince Edward Island during the 2008/2009 summer (Bester et al. 2009) and 8,312 (CI: 7,983–8,697) at Marion Island in 2012/2013 (Wege et al. 2016). Thus, there are currently around 22,453 pups born each year within the assessment region, which can be extrapolated to a total population of 108,000 individuals based on the ratio of births to total numbers being 1:4.8 (Kerley 1987). While both components of the population increased steadily to the early 21st century, Marion Island pup production declined by 6.4% between 2003/2004 and 2012/2013 (Wege et al. 2016), which represents a 46% (95% credible interval CI: 43%–48%) decline in the pup population between 2004 (mean=15,260, CI: 14,447–16,169 pups) and 2013 (mean=8,312, CI: 7,983–8,697), and mirrored by a 58%–60% decline at rookeries counted annually (2007–2015). This decline is not an anomaly but due to a real decline evidenced by continuous annual decreases (2007–2015) (Wege et al. 2016). It is unlikely that this slowed growth is a result of interspecific competition for breeding space as Subantarctic Fur Seals prefer to breed on boulder/jumbled rocky beaches (Bester 1982), whereas Antarctic Fur Seals prefer small-pebble beaches backed by vegetated slopes (Kerley 1984).

The Prince Edward Island component was very close to stability between 2001/2002 and 2008/2009 (0.3% mean annual decline, Bester et al. 2009), compared to the natural population increase of 9.3% per annum between 1987/1988 and 2001/2002, but it is unknown whether there has been a more recent decline mirroring that at Marion Island. The population decline at Marion Island was highest at high-density rookeries despite negligible change in female attendance patterns, pup mortality or median pupping date over the last 25 years (Wege et al. 2016). It is currently unclear why this population is declining and further research is needed to assess the cause of decline and determine whether it will continue.

Generation length is estimated as 10.7 years (Pacifici et al. 2013), yielding a 32-year three generation window (1983-2015). On Marion Island, the 2013 total population estimate of pups (8,312; 95% CI: 7,983–8,697) is equivalent to that of 1989 when the population was still increasing exponentially (8,684 pups, Wilkinson & Bester 1990). Thus, there has been no net decline over three generations.

Threats

Commercial sealing in the 18th and 19th centuries overexploited fur seals and reduced this species to the brink of extinction by the beginning of the 20th century. Since then, populations have increased rapidly and much of the former range has been re-occupied. This population bottleneck has potentially reduced their genetic variation and may render this species vulnerable to disease or climate change (Wynen et al. 2000; Kovacs et al. 2012). However, genetic diversity remains relatively high for the species (Wynen et al. 2000). Fur seals are also at risk of mass mortality from infectious diseases, though the isolation of their island habitat affords some species a higher degree of protection from disease (Lavigne & Schmitz 1990; Chown et al. 1998). The transfer of pathogens from invasive species, such as the House Mouse (Mus musculus) may potentially lead to mass mortality events (de Bruyn et al. 2008). 

Commercial exploitation of fish in their feeding range has the potential to influence the environment of these seals (Hanchet et al. 2003) even though it does not target predominant prey species (Klages & Bester 1998; Makhado et al. 2013). While few fisheries exploit waters occupied by Subantarctic Fur Seals, these may expand and are potentially detrimental (Hanchet et al. 2003). Entanglement in marine debris occurs at the Prince Edward Islands but incidences are low at 0.24% for this species and the sympatric Antarctic Fur Seal combined for the period 1996–2001 (Hofmeyr et al. 2002). Tourist visits to Subantarctic Fur Seal haul-out sites are rare and thought to cause minimal disturbance (Shirihai 2002; Hofmeyr & Bester 2008). Tourism does not take place at the Prince Edward Islands (Prince Edward Islands Management Plan 2010). 

Subantarctic Fur Seals are sympatric with Antarctic Fur Seals at the Prince Edward Islands (Bester et al. 2006) and the Îles Crozet (Guinet et al. 1994), and with both Antarctic Fur Seals and New Zealand Fur Seals at Macquarie Island (Goldsworthy 1999), leading to hybridisation at all three sites. Levels of hybridisation at the Prince Edward Islands are very low and no threat to the species at this site.

The recent decline in pup production is possibly linked to density-dependent factors but to what extent has not been determined (Wege et al. 2016). It is unknown if this is a consequence of the potentially detrimental effects of climate change (Chown et al. 1998; Learmonth et al. 2006; Kovacs et al. 2012).

Uses and trade

The species is not traded nor under threat of future trade as it is largely protected by the isolation of its distribution.

Conservation

Subantarctic Fur Seals live in some of the most remote oceanic areas and breed on many of the most isolated islands on earth. All of the breeding islands are managed as protected areas or parks by the governments that claim these territories. Seals on the Prince Edward Islands are protected by the South African Seabirds and Seals Protection Act (Prince Edward Islands Management Plan 2010). The islands themselves are a Special Nature Reserve (de Villiers & Cooper 2008) and part of a Marine Protected Area (DEA 2013), and thus the breeding grounds within the assessment region are secure. Special management areas restrict visitor access to specific areas, including all of Prince Edward Island itself and most of Marion Island (Prince Edward Islands Management Plan 2010). Tourism does not take place in the Prince Edward Islands (Prince Edward Islands Management Plan 2010). No specific interventions are required at present, but the population should continue to be monitored.

Recommendations for land managers and practitioners:
  • Continuation of monitoring and research programme conducted to date (over the past 2 decades) by the Marion Island Marine Mammal Programme under the auspices of the Mammal Research Institute, Department of Zoology and Entomology, University of Pretoria. Especially continued assessment of population trends and foraging behaviour, given the recently identified declining population trend.
Research priorities:
  • Assess the causes of the recently identified inflexion in population trajectory, from positive to negative, at Marion Island.
  • Determine the effect of global climate change on the foraging and breeding behavior of this species.
  • Assess the effects of local fisheries on prey populations.
Encouraged citizen actions:
  • Foraging ecology research is progressing but has been impeded by the financial investment that is required for satellite telemetry. Aid in funding this aspect can be securely provided through http://www.givengain.com/cause/4655/.
  • Due to the isolation of Antarctic Fur Seal habitat, citizen actions are limited. However, citizens can report potential sightings on virtual museum platforms (for example, iSpot and MammalMAP).

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 author = {Wilkinson IS, Bester MN. },
 journal = {South African Journal of Antarctic Research },
 pages = {58–63},
 title = {Continued population increase in fur seals, Arctocephalus tropicalis and A. gazella, at the Prince Edward Islands},
 volume = {20},
 year = {1990}
}
,]
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