Population trend
Trend
The size of the Cape Fur Seal population in the early 1990s was estimated at about 1.7 million individuals aged one and older (Butterworth et al. 1995). Despite range expansion, the overall population size appears to have remained relatively stable since the early 1990s, according to pup count trends (Kirkman et al. 2007). Several new breeding colonies have established, especially in the north of Namibia and southern Angola, offset by declines in other colonies, especially in the south of Namibia (Kirkman et al. 2013). Currently, approximately 40 breeding colonies are found throughout the range of the species, compared with 23 in the early 1970s (Kirkman et al. 2013). The current size of the population in South Africa also appears similar to the early 1990s, based on pup count trends (Kirkman et al. 2013). Given that some 40% of the total population occurs in South Africa (Kirkman et al. 2007, 2013), the population in this country (aged one and older) is expected to be about 680,000 individuals. There are currently 16 breeding colonies in South Africa (Kirkman et al. 2013).
While the breeding colonies are separated by distances of up to several hundred kilometres, tag data (Oosthuizen 1991) and genetic evidence indicate that there is substantial movement between them (Matthee et al. 2006). Thus, there is gene flow between Angolan, Namibian and South African populations.
In 2004, some 75% of Cape Fur Seals bred at three sites: the Atlas Bay-Wolf Bay-Long Islands Group and Cape Cross in Namibia, and Kleinzee in South Africa. While the abundances of the larger breeding colonies are relatively stable, they do experience fluctuations (Kirkman et al. 2013). These fluctuations are greater in southern Namibian breeding colonies (Kirkman et al. 2013), which have experienced major mortality events due to the impact of poor environmental conditions on prey populations (Roux 1998). In 2009, pup production at the Kleinzee breeding colony, which accounts for the majority of the South African population, had declined by about 40% from its peak rate (Kirkman et al. 2013). Smaller breeding colonies, most of which are estimated to contain more than 1,000 adults (Kirkman et al. 2007), tend to experience greater fluctuations than larger breeding colonies (Kirkman et al. 2007, 2013). Towards the east of their distribution, the relatively small colony on Robberg Peninsula is increasing rapidly, now numbering well above 3,000 individuals (Huisamen et al. 2011).
Generation length has been calculated at 9.1 years (Pacifici et al. 2013). Population change over three generations from 1982â2009 has been positive (Kirkman et al. 2013).