Rationale
Cheetahs have been extirpated from over c. 90% of their former distribution range within the assessment region and currently occur only along the northern borders of South Africa and in several isolated protected areas. The population can be regarded as three groups assigned by differences in management intensity and land uses:- Free-roaming animals (population size estimated with low confidence at 400â800 individuals): occur unmanaged outside of fenced protected areas mostly on ranchland and are vulnerable to conflict-related killing and live removals;
- Large protected areas of the Kruger National Park (KNP; population size assessed with high confidence at 412 individuals) and Kgalagadi Transfrontier Park (KTP; population size estimated with medium confidence at 80 individuals): these Cheetahs are well protected but are threatened by edge effects like snaring; and
- Managed metapopulation: a network of fenced reserves into which Cheetahs have been reintroduced and are managed as one national population through assisted dispersals. While safe inside these fenced areas, these individuals are reliant on varying degrees of human management to ensure the population remains viable. Mortalities related to veterinary interventions and edge effects are the key threats in this group.
Regionally, key threats include: conflict-related killing, removal for captive trade and poorly regulated captive trade, habitat fragmentation and snaring. The full extent and impact of these threats are unknown. The regional population appears to be stable or perhaps increasing due to the conservation efforts of the managed metapopulation. However, the lack of reliable information on the free-roaming animals is prohibitive in making any reliable conclusions. We speculate a mature population structure of between 50 and 60% in Cheetah populations. Using a population range of between 1,166 and 1,742, and assuming a mature population structure of 50%, we speculate that there are between 583 and 871 mature individuals in the population. Whereas, assuming a mature population structure of 60%, we speculate there are between 700â1,045 mature individuals in the population. Thus, we retain the listing of Vulnerable D1 and urge further research on the free-roaming population. We also add the listing of Vulnerable C2a(i) given that the largest subpopulation (Kruger National Park) comprises 295â330 mature individuals and because there is potentially an inferred continuing decline in the free-roaming subpopulation given ongoing persecution, snaring and illegal removal for the captive industry (which is an emerging threat to wild Cheetahs within the assessment region). Key interventions include reducing humanâwildlife conflict on ranchlands, combatting the illegal trade in wild-caught Cheetah and promoting compatible land uses to connect protected areas, such as conservancies. This species requires active and ongoing conservation interventions to prevent it from slipping into a more threatened category.
Regional population effects: The free-roaming population in northern South Africa is connected through Botswana to Namibia and to a limited extent through Zimbabwe to the rest of southern Africa. Thus, the range within the assessment region is contiguous with the rest of the southern African range but it is unclear whether dispersal or movement actually occurs along these borders. Similarly, there are known Cheetah occurrences in the Mozambique side of the Great Limpopo Transfrontier Park (GLTP) (IUCN SSC 2007) (this population established following the dropping of fences with KNP in 2003), and there may be links through to Gonarezhou National Park in Zimbabwe which has resident Cheetah. Thus, there may be routes for dispersal into KNP from these two areas. However, due to uncertain levels of dispersal and high rates of mortality from humanâwildlife conflict in all areas, we assume no significant rescue effects are possible and retain the Vulnerable listing. We suspect that the South African Cheetah population is not a sink for immigrants, and is most likely a source (especially the KNP/GLTP).