Population trend
Trend
While East (1999) suggested a total population of about 18,000, at least 25% occurring in protected areas and more than 30% on private land, the lack of comprehensive data prevents an accurate estimate of current population size. The remaining proportion of the population, which is in decline, is made up of scattered populations on the peripheries of protected areas in South Africa, as well as remnant populations in Lesotho and Swaziland. There is estimated to be a minimum of 2,000 individuals in formally protected areas, but further research is needed to determine whether there are over 10,000 individuals across its range. The largest known subpopulations occur in the Maloti-Drakensberg Park World Heritage Site, where numbers were estimated to be 2,000-3,000 in 1994 (Rowe-Rowe 1994), but which are thought to have declined by at least 15-20% (and possibly more) over the last 15 years (1999–2015; I. Rushworth pers. comm. 2016); and Golden Gate Highlands National Park, where a recent aerial survey counted 414 individuals at 1.3 animals / km² (Bissett et al. 2016). Estimated population densities of the Grey Rhebok in protected areas are generally in the range 0.5-1.7 animals / km² (IUCN SSC Antelope Specialist Group 2008), but occasionally lower, for example, 0.2-0.3 animals / km² in Addo-Zuurberg and Karoo National Parks; or higher, for example, 4.3 animals / km² in Bontebok National Park (Beukes 1987); or 6.4 animals / km² at Sterkfontein Dam Nature Reserve (summarised in East 1999, Taylor et al. 2007). The Grey Rhebok subpopulation in the Coleford Nature Reserve (southern Drakensberg) varies greatly in size due to their utilisation of adjacent lands. An increase in subpopulation size was described between 1986 and 1988 with 27 individuals in the 1,272 ha reserve, probably due to compression of subpopulations from adjoining properties as a result of an increase in hunting by dogs. This increase was followed by a decrease until 1993, likely due to poaching and a succession of long, dry winters (O’Connor and Krüger 2003). Between 1993 and 2001, the mean subpopulation size in the reserve was 7.6 individuals (O’Connor and Krüger 2003).
Generation length for this species has been calculated as 4.9 years (based on a longevity of 12 years in captivity) (Pacifici et al. 2013), which yields a 14.7 year three generation period (1999-2014). The IUCN SSC Antelope Specialist Group estimate generation length as 4.4 years, yielding a 13 year three generation window (D. Mallon pers. comm. 2016). The Grey Rhebok is a difficult species to count accurately, and inconsistent counting methods in many areas have resulted in a paucity of reliable trend data on which to base an assessment. Collation of available subpopulation data from 13 formally protected areas across its range with adequate long-term count data suggests a decline of 17-25% over three generations. Additionally, anecdotal evidence in other protected areas confirms a generally declining trend. In the Northern Cape there are no reliable population trend data, but numbers are suspected to be declining primarily due to poaching (K. Craft pers. comm. 2016). In the Western Cape (where trend data are also lacking) there are similar reports of declining subpopulations across national and provincial protected areas, private lands and the Boland Mountain Complex (T. Barry pers. comm. 2016, C. Birss and C. Cowell unpubl. data). Additionally, only two individuals were counted in Table Mountain National Park in 2011 (C. Cowell unpubl. data), and Grey Rhebok are absent from a number of private farms in the Western Cape where their occurrence would be expected. Conversely, the subpopulation in Golden Gate Highlands National Park appears to be genuinely increasing (Bissett et al. 2016). However, counts of the Golden Gate Highlands National Park are excluded because the count methods have changed significantly over the three generation period and the park has increased in size, rendering comparisons between 1999 and 2016 spurious (C. Bissett pers. comm. 2016). Further collation of long-term data, especially outside protected areas, is necessary to more accurately estimate population reduction over three generations. Overall, while the decline is ca 20% from a sample of protected areas, the net decline may be greater, as subpopulations may be declining more severely outside protected areas. As the Near Threatened category (for criterion A) is based on declines that are close to meeting the criterion A threshold of 30% (IUCN Standards and Petitions Subcommittee 2014), we thus feel a precautionary listing is appropriate.
The level of fragmentation is unknown. While the distribution of Grey Rhebok is discontinuous and patchy, they occur outside of protected areas and will be able to move fairly freely in many areas. They are also accomplished leapers known to jump fences (Skinner and Chimimba 2005). There is natural geographic fragmentation by mountain ranges and fragmentation caused by agricultural land uses. Grey Rhebok are quite widespread and free-roaming, and although the number of locations is unknown, they are unlikely to be affected by any single threat. That being said, given the declines in numbers across the country, the level of fragmentation may be increasing.