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The global population of the elusive and range-restricted Protea Seedeater Crithagra leucoptera is suspected to be in decline approaching but not attaining the 30% threshold, which would qualify it as regionally Vulnerable. By virtue of this species being endemic it is proposed that the global status follows the regional status of Near Threatened in future assessments.
The Protea Seedeater is endemic to South Africa and confined to the Mountain Fynbos and semi-arid scrub of Western and Eastern Cape. It is very rare (previously suspected to be absent) on the Cape Peninsula (Fraser and Richardson 1989) although there have been reports from Kirstenbosch National Botanical Gardens. It is said to be largely sedentary but does undertake make local movements in response to fire, and to flowering and fruiting patterns of Fynbos plants (Fraser 1989, Peacock 2012). Birds are often found in large numbers in areas of recently burnt, former mature Fynbos associated with the release of large numbers of stored seeds from Protea species, but breed in mature Fynbos. In addition to Protea-rich Fynbos, the species is also found in tall streamside bush, forested ravines and gorges, mountain valleys, small forest patches and in semi-arid vegetation at the edge of the Karoo (Peacock 2012). An AoO of 8 829 km2 is provided by Lee et al. (2015) based on reports from pentads from SABAP2, but this is likely an underestimate due to poor coverage of upland mountain areas by atlasers, coupled with low detectability. The AoO is more likely to be closer to the upper confidence interval of modelled range i.e. 17 000 km2 (Lee and Barnard 2014). It is well represented in the IBA network, including the Kouga-Baviaanskloof Complex, Cedarberg-Koue Bokkeveld Complex, Swartberg Mountains, Eastern False Bay Mountains and Outeniqua Mountains. It is less frequently recorded in the Wilderness-Sedgefield Lakes Complex, Southern Langeberg Mountains, Overberg Wheatbelt and Botriviervlei and Kleinmond Estuary IBAs.
An estimate of 395 257-831 202 mature individuals is provided by Lee and Barnard (2015). Confidence in this population estimate is medium.
According to Lee and Barnard (2015) the Protea Seedeater has undergone an apparent 32% decrease in range and reporting rates (a proxy for abundance), declining from 81 QDSs to 55 QDSs in the twenty years between SABAP periods. The twenty year period between SABAP1 and SABAP2 (1987-1991 and 2007-ongoing) is a significantly longer period than the three-generation period of 11.4 years provided by BirdLife International (2014). It is therefore suspected that the species is undergoing a decline that approaches but does not attain the 30% threshold. Confidence in this trend estimate is medium to low given that Lee and Barnard (2015) suggest from feedback from contributors to the atlas project, that it is likely under-reported.
The primary threat to Protea Seedeater is climate change with future scenarios indicating a contraction in range, driven most strongly by temperature increases compared to changes in precipitation (Huntley and Barnard 2012, Lee and Barnard 2014). Causes of declines in reported ranges for Protea Seedeater over a relatively short period (c. 20 years) are unlikely to be due to direct landscape transformation through agriculture (Lee and Barnard 2015) with arable land in the Fynbos Biome having already been converted well before the first atlas period (Cowling et al. 1986). Given decreased periods between fires (Wilson et al. 2010), increased fire danger indices due to changing climate (Southey 2009, Kraaij et al. 2012), and greater extent of fires in the eastern parts of the species range (Kraaij et al. 2012) it is likely that these indirect influences of climate change are adversely impacting populations as loss of old growth Fynbos implies loss of food as well as nesting resources (Lee and Barnard 2014).
Core habitats are well protected within a large network of provincial reserves (Lee and Barnard 2015). There are no specific conservation programs planned or in progress.
It is likely that this species more so than any of the other Fynbos endemic bird species requires a patchwork mosaic of burn history in order to thrive. Burning small patches of old growth Fynbos will result in release of abundant food resources, while protection of old growth Fynbos is also needed to ensure nesting sites and a consistent supply of food both on the Proteas and surrounding vegetation. Loss of food resources where alien vegetation encroachment replaces natural Fynbos is likely also a threat.
* Further information on habitat-use and life-history information is required in order to guide conservation management plans, especially in light of changing fire regimes in the Fynbos Biome (Lee and Barnard 2014). There is evidence for nest predation by baboons (Lee and Barnard 2014), and areas with high baboon populations may adversely impact Protea Seedeater and other bird species' populations.